Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/19-21, likely voters):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 42
Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 46
(MoE: ±4)
The last time Markos commissioned a poll here, Wicker led Musgrove by a 47-39 margin. However, it would be a bit deceptive to put those results as trendlines. As Markos noted at the time, his December poll heavily undersampled African-Americans. They made up just 9% of his December poll sample, while their real share is closer to 35% of the Mississippi electorate. So if you re-weight that poll, Musgrove was actually leading in December — by a considerable margin.
So while this poll doesn’t show the eight point Musgrove lead that one of the Musgrove campaign’s internals showed earlier this week, it indicates a close race.
For now, Musgrove has the advantage of a statewide profile, which is something that Wicker is still working on. Here’s one area for Musgrove to consolidate some support: he currently leads among black voters by 73-9. He’ll need to push that to at least 90% (preferably higher) on election day.
MS-B Wicker Likely Rep to Toss Up
NC Dole Solid Rep to Likely Rep
MS-B SEN: According to Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy, Republicans may have to fight to hold on to a seat in the Deep South. “A competitive Senate race in Mississippi? In a presidential year? Really? As crazy as it sounds, a new poll does indeed show that appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker will have a fight on his hands in his bid to complete the remainder of former Sen. Trent Lott’s term.”
NC SEN: Duffy writes that Democrats have put the race in North Carolina in their sights. “In their effort to put more Senate races in play, Democrats have turned their attention to North Carolina and GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole.”
OR-5 was changed from Toss-up to Lean Democratic as well.
But this is clearly a top-tier race.
Now let’s see what kind of money Musgrove can raise.
Because in the DKos Poll they identified the Democrat and Republican in the questioning. In the DSCC poll, they didn’t. The reason why is because technically the MS-B Senate race will be a special election so there will be no “D”s and “R”s next to their names just like in MS-01. Even better than we thought.
While I was very disappointed Mike Moore did not jump in finally after so many false starts, Ronnie Musgrove is a very strong candidate for us. He has statewide name recognition as this poll seems to demonstrate. Musgrove’s statewide loss to Haley Barbour in 2003 was not that terrible if you consider (1) how popular Barbour is in the state; and (2) that the election occured while the GOP was still very strong nationally. This time around Musgrove will be facing a less known and less well liked candidate, and in a time where the GOP brand is in much lower standing.
I am going to keep a very close eye on this race. But in 2003, Ronnie won blacks overwhelmingly and got killed with whites. I have no doubt the black vote will be there for him, but he has to find a way to make better inroads with whites who make up two-thirds of the state. Even a slight improvement among both could win it for him.
I remember saying back in the fall that the Democrats could win as many as 13 seats. Granted, I never actually expected they would win that many, but I felt that with the right candidates they could be competitive in that many states and force the GOP to spend big money defending 13 seats.
It looks like I could be proven right.
At the very least, I see no fewer than 10 races where the Democrat is within the margin of error in at least one poll.